Dollar Up On Increased Risk Aversion In The Markets

The pound is mixed this morning, dropping against the broadly stronger dollar, but gaining against the euro after overnight report showed that UK consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months in September. Gfk NOP index of consumer confidence improved by 1 point from August to –30. Gfk said that while the increase is not statistically significant, it is “psychologically important” as it halts a recent decline in sentiment. However, sterling gains were limited against the US dollar as Asian stocks dropped, spurring demand for safer assets. Expect for the pound to remain driven by market risk aversion as there are no data releases or policy speeches scheduled for today.  

Euro dropped against most of its major rivals during early morning session after German retail sales figures fell by more than economists forecast. German gauge slumped to –2.9% in August after rising by 0.3% in July, missing the expectations of a –0.5% decline. Signs that the Eurozone debt crisis is hurting the region’s economic recovery have prompted speculations that the European Central Bank may be lowering the borrowing costs at their monthly meeting next week.  Looking ahead to today, Eurozone’s Unemployment and CPI estimate headlines the economic calendar. 

The dollar gained across the board during the Asian session on concerns that global economy is faltering, boosting demand for the so-called “safe haven” currencies. Additional evidence to the weakening global economy was provided today when Chinese manufacturing shrank for a third month, the longest contraction since 2009. On the US data front, University of Michigan Confidence report headlines the economic calendar, with the expectations for the figures to remain unchanged at 57.8 in September. Expect for the dollar to remain in current ranges as global outlook is not looking promising.

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